VB Dems

“I am older than dirt” - John McCain 12/01/2006

Here’s a list of things that are younger than McCain.

Be prepared for a stomping tonight, Obama fans.  Hillary Clinton is going to win West Virginia, and win it by massive numbers.  I had predicted earlier that Clinton would pick up a net gain of 6 delegates in our neighboring state.  However, after looking at recent events, I feel that my earlier prediction was an understatement.  I feel the delegate count will be closer to Obama 8, Clinton 20 than my earlier call of Obama 11, Clinton 17.  Will it do much for Hillary?  No.  Obama will be only 25 pledged delegates away from securing a majority, which he will easily do on May 20th.  But it’ll be interesting to see whether or not the MSM keeps calling the race “over” once the results get in tonight; a beating possibly as high as 40% (which would match her Arkansas numbers).  The fact that Obama only visited WV once says that not only is he expecting to get beat, he expects that campaigning wouldn’t make much of a difference.

This may be Hillary last big chance to swing momentum.  She may destory Obama in Kentucky on the 20th, but after Oregon comes in (likely an Obama win), the story will not be Clinton’s Kentucky win, but Obama securing the most pledged delegates.  If Hillary wants a momentum shift, it must be now.

This is the perfect example why people hate government: Speaker Howell of the House of No.

His latest obstructionist cause? Stopping real opportunity to solving the transportation crisis by blocking governor Kaine’s new tax proposal.

What solutions do Howell and the rest of the fascists bring to the table? Do they have their own plans that can be voted on immediately to provide Virginians relief? I seriously doubt it.

But this is only the latest example of the hard line partisanship Howell and the rest of his caucus engage in that other members of the House call “Republicans using the government as a tool to advance the party and their own power, instead of advancing Virginians.”

For instance, instead of supporting bi-partisan redistricting, Howell supported the status quo of gerrymandering in order to use as a political tool to attempt to pad their majorities. You can believe on the top of their list of priorities our own Virginia Beach democratic delegates.

Their only goal is to be safe until the next election, which is why many, many subcommittee votes are not recorded. Republicans know they would face embarrassment and retribution at the hands of voters should the very promising bills they kill, for purely political reason, was ever discovered. Subcommittee votes like that of Virginia Beach delegate Terrie Sui, which put to wayside the public smoking ban.

Even more telling is the story told to me about the speaker and how he ‘cracks his whip’ in order to keep his delegation in line. After those, I believe 17, republicans who crossed the aisle to vote in favor of governor Warner’s common sense economic proposal in 2002, Howell resorted to typical, gutter politics. He ‘punished’ members of his own party! Taking away committee chairmanships, docket positions, and god knows what else. But what truly broke through about the black hole of his character was this: after 30 years of service in the House of No, a retiring republican was looking to be put on the College of William & Mary’s board of visitors. But, since that had to be approved by the house, our illustrious speaker blocked a member of his own party for retribution, from the board. THE MAN WAS RETIRING!

In any case, clearly this man is the poster child for what is wrong in our political discourse today. One thing needs to be done, recapturing the house in 2009!!

Stand by for heavy rolls in this coming special legislative session. The Republicans fully intend to be obstructionist during the special session likely because they want to diminish the goodwill that Governor Kaine has sustained and possibly even increased for the Democratic Party during his tenure. And they are preying on the aspirations of the average Virginian to trick them into believing they will be somehow harmed if the state is fiscally responsible. This is a continuation of the Governor Allen double talk and the slight of hand Governor Gilmore set in motion. Handoff to Attorney General Bob McDonnell who released a partisan attack on the plan today under the letterhead of his elected office rather than as a campaign statement. Where was he when the General Assembly handed the Governor the clearly unconstitutionally crafted transportation plan of 2007? Muffled by the lock-step dictates of the Virginia Republican Party hierarchy?

This all goes to the ballad of the “Bleeding Heart Conservative,” the “Compassionate Conservative,” or whatever you want to call those who cry for welfare for the rich. Pity those who bear the burden of success. Praise them for their benevolence when they tip appropriately for good table service. Yes, there is a knucklehead commentator on every afternoon who believes that we should be grateful for the tax cuts for the rich because, after all, they just could not afford to tip us well without that consideration, leaving us who knows where. And, after all, it is those tips that power our upward economic mobility.
Continue Reading »

Governor Kaine has rolled out a new transportation funding plan which you can read all about here. There continues to be one tax that I really do not understand. Yes, I understand and agree with the philosophy that folks who benefit or use the roads should be the ones paying for them.

With the hit home sellers are absorbing as home values decrease, why are they the ones also hit with a 25-cents per $100 increase in the grantor’s tax? Why isn’t it the buyers who are reeking the benefit of the deflated prices and are the future users of roads that are instead paying this proposed tax?

And I agree with Lowell, a gas tax makes way more sense than a sales tax. It just unfortunately stands a snowball’s chance in hell with the current House of “No”. But at least Kaine is sticking with his support of mass transit. Most of that grantor’s tax will be dedicated to it.

Finally, the MSM (see “Feminists Sharply Divided Between Clinton, Obama” here) belatedly accepts that you can be for women’s rights and not be a knee-jerk supporter of Hillary Clinton. This is a pretty good summary of why I don’t belong to NOW. They have done very little for women’s rights and a whole lot for their own self-aggrandizement and for unrelated causes. I support Obama. I do it for my daughters. And my son.

(h/t spotter)

SAN FRANCISCO – The Military Family Outdoor (MFO) Initiative, a joint project of the Sierra Club and The Sierra Club Foundation, today announced a three-year grant of up to $23 million, provided by generous donors to support three organizations that provide returning veterans and their families with healing, life-affirming outdoor experiences in the natural world.

“We are proud to serve military families thanks to the support of donors to The Sierra Club Foundation who are profoundly motivated to ensure that those protecting our country get to enjoy its natural wonders,” stated Carl Pope, Executive Director of the Sierra Club. “This project will connect a new generation of American servicemen and women and their children to the mental and physical benefits of our natural heritage.”

The Military Family Outdoor Initiative is building on the success of a partnership the Sierra Club began last year with support to the National Military Family Association (NMFA) to provide week-long summer camp experiences to military children. NMFA’s Operation Purple Camps engage kids in outdoor experiences and activities while teaching coping skills to help them deal with the deployment of one or both parents.

“Together with the Sierra Club we can make a difference in the lives of our nation’s youngest heroes,” said Nancy Alsheimer, Chairman of NMFA Board of Governors. “Drawing on the healing and connecting experiences of the outdoors, Operation Purple Camps empower military children and provide a much needed respite from worries about their deployed parents.”

The Sierra Club believes that every child has a right to have a special place in nature. In a 2005 study mandated by the California Legislature, the American Institute of Research found that children gain self-esteem and personal responsibility from outdoor experiences. In fact, students demonstrated a 27% increase in science test scores after a week-long outdoor experience. The Military Family Outdoor program will provide these experiences for military children during a crucial time in their lives.

This year, the Sierra Club has greatly expanded its work with NMFA and has added outdoor programs for returning veterans, as well as camping programs for the entire military family to experience together. Sierra Club’s Military Family Outdoor Initiative has partnered with the Armed Services YMCA to provide additional family camps near military installations across the country and joined with Outward Bound to sponsor returning veterans in outdoor wilderness adventure courses.

“Outward Bound is grateful to the Military Family Outdoor Initiative Project for its support serving America’s veterans through our proven outdoor wilderness adventure courses,” said John Read, Outward Bound’s President and Chief Executive Officer.

“The Sierra Club Foundation grant provides a rewarding outdoor camping experience for hundreds of military kids as well as military families. They’ll have an opportunity to learn more about nature and most importantly, take time away from the stress of deployment,” said Armed Services YMCA National Executive Director Frank Gallo, Rear Admiral, U.S. Navy (Ret). “The ASYMCA is proud to have the Sierra Club as a partner in our mission to support America’s military families.”

The Sierra Club’s members and supporters are more than 1.3 million of your friends and neighbors. Inspired by nature, we work together to protect our communities and the planet. The Club is America’s oldest, largest and most influential grassroots environmental organization. Our mission is to explore, enjoy and protect the planet.

As I reported here, according to a 2006 report, the Center for Responsible Lending projects that the City of Virginia Beach will see 1,800 homes lost in foreclosure from 2005/2006 subprime loans. Almost 103,000 Beach homes will lose value due to nearby subprime foreclosures. The average decrease in value for these homes is $3,319. Virginia Beach will realize a $341,171,724 decrease in home values and tax base from just these 2005/2006 subprime loans.

Thus with her vote against H.R. 3221, The Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008, Second District Congressional candidate Glenn Nye makes the following statement: “Today, 39 Republicans joined with their Democratic colleagues to pass important legislation to help families at risk of losing their homes to foreclosure; unfortunately, Thelma Drake was not part of that bipartisan coalition. Instead of siding with the families of Hampton Roads who are at risk of foreclosure, Thelma Drake decided to play party politics. Home foreclosures in Hampton Roads have tripled in the last year and it is long past time for independent leadership that will focus on our priorities, not partisanship.”

According to Crystal Clear Market, in the real estate market of Norfolk and Virginia Beach for the first quarter of 2008, foreclosures increased 365 percent over the first quarter of 2007.

Adds Americans United for Change:

“Fresh on the heels of a $30 billion bailout this Administration supported for Bear Stearns and other Wall Street financiers, it takes a lot of nerve for President Bush to now threaten to stand in the way of help for so many American families on the verge of losing their homes under a mortgage crisis that his own Administration’s inaction and incompetence exacerbated. And now struggling Virginia families and communities caught up in this mess know exactly where Reps. Thelma Drake and Frank Wolf [R-10] stand.”

on Mother’s Day weekend. (No action was taken on apple pie.) It’s true!

Happy Mother’s Day!

From the Glenn Nye for Congress campaign:

Most political emails you get offer you an opportunity to take action that will benefit the campaign’s bottom line. This is one that offers you the opportunity to take action that benefits your OWN bottom line.

Sign our petition to lower gas prices by rescinding corporate oil subsidies and investing in renewable energy.

Gas prices have gotten absolutely out of control. As I’ve driven across the 2nd district speaking to voters, I see the escalating prices and how they are affecting our families. I know how we feel the pinch every day.

The worst part is–you’re being charged twice. Continue Reading »

The big frontpage headline in yesterday’s Virginian-Pilot was “Dominion Power Seeks State’s OK To Raise Rates 18%”. In its filing to the State Corporation Commission (SCC), “Dominion attributes the need for the increase on the escalating costs of commodities, particularly coal and natural gas, needed to run power plants”. Gosh, how much will our rates again go up once Dominion starts trying to finance the construction of its $1.8 billion coal-fired power plant in Wise County, Virginia?

On March 31, 2008, the SCC found that Dominion was not eligible as a “clean coal facility” but was rather just the regular type of massive polluter (5.4 million tons of global warming pollution emitted every year as produced by burning coal removed from Virginia’s blown up mountaintops). The SCC also stated that the $1.8 billion dollar project would raise electricity rates enough to potentially cause the loss of nearly 1,500 jobs across the state due to those ratepayers having less money to spend on goods and services.

The SCC also stated that “[W]e do not find that it is reasonable or prudent for the company to incur any amount of costs above the the cost estimates that comprise the projected level of $1.8 billion.” Meaning, as Wise Energy for Virginia points out, that if the cost of the plant rises above current levels, Dominion, instead of ratepayers will have to pay the difference. Outfitting the plant as a “clean coal facility” or “carbon capture facility” will cost Dominion and dip into its profits. Goodness that can’t happen! They are on a roll after all. Earnings in 2007 were $2.54 billion, or $3.88 per share, compared with net income of $1.38 billion, or $1.96 per share, for 2006. They can do that kind of math! Fuck carbon capture! Screw the ratepayers! Screw the planet!

Governor Tim Kaine can stop the madness just as governors throughout the US already have. Demand that Kaine pull the plug on this disastrous power plant. Email the Governor by clicking here. His phone number is (804) 786-2211. Keep the pressure up by asking him about Dominion at his various public appearances and upcoming transportation town hall meetings. Click here to find out where the Governor will be at any one time.

Congrats to our own Ian Jordan who has been named a “Teen at the Top” by Access College Foundation. This Legal Studies Academy senior at First Colonial High School is both an active member of the VBDC and President of his school’s Young Democrats club. Indeed as Ollie Bates, Chairman of the VBDC remarks, Ian is a “fine young man who represents the future of the Democratic Party and of America.” Read all about our own Teen at the Top in Tidewater Parent magazine.

With Barack’s sweep of NC and Hillary’s underperformance in IN, Obama is safely our presumptive nominee. So now we turn the the next question, who will be his deputy? There are plenty of strands people can choose from- healing the party (Clinton), strengthening milatary backgrounds (Zinni), playing states (Strickland), or going for whole regions (Richardson). Maybe he should choose a republican to bolster his bi-partisan argument?
I once thought Webb was the best option. But have now moved on to think Rendell of PA would be a good choice. Before it is all done, I probably will have changed my mind once again. In any case, what are all of y’alls thoughts on the veepstakes?

Here’s an ingenious idea! No more development in disaster-prone coastal areas! I don’t want to have to pay increased homeowners insurance premiums because some developer wants to build on every square inch of beachfront!

From the National Wildlife Federation:

The Senate is now debating the National Flood Insurance program, which has a significant impact on how development decisions are made in coastal areas and natural floodplains. These areas will feel the worst impacts of global warming with sea level rise, intensified hurricanes, and increased flooding.

Several controversial amendments are expected during debate including schemes that would:

* Subsidize insurance in high risk and environmentally sensitive areas.
* Waive requirements for participation in the flood insurance program for people living behind unsafe Army Corps of Engineer’s levees. We saw from Hurricane Katrina that people living behind levees may still be at great risk and need to be properly insured.
* Add wind damage insurance that provides incentives to build in catastrophe prone and environmentally sensitive zones.

Getting homeowners insurance is hard enough and pricey enough as it is! I can just see these insurance companies playing a bait and switch game here. They’ll say they need these subsidies so as to offer insurance to new development, using the high cost of what we are paying now to prove their point. “Everybody needs relief” they’ll say, “And the only way we can provide relief is to get Fed gov’t subsidies for all this new development.” Meanwhile, my insurance rates don’t go down any and I’ll be stuck with an even higher bill to offset all the new development! Unbelievable!

Urge Senators Webb and Warner to stop supporting high-risk development! Click here to send this message to them:

I’m writing today because I am concerned about increased development in areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters and floods. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and flooding are expected to get worse because of the impacts of global warming, and federal subsidies to keep insurance rates artificially low will encourage development in disaster-prone areas.

As a taxpayer and a conservationist, I do not want to pay for expanding federal catastrophic and wind insurance programs that already do not work. Please oppose any amendments that add wind damage to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) or that create a new federal natural catastrophe backstop program. These reforms will only lead to more construction of homes and businesses in high-risk, environmentally-sensitive areas.

In addition, please oppose any amendment that waives requirements for participation in the NFIP for people living behind levees. This amendment will give people who live behind levees a false sense of security and could put them at great risk.

(Stephen M. Katz photos/the virginian-pilot)

Our 2nd district congressional candidate, Glenn Nye, will join us for a live-blog on Sunday, May 11th at 8:00pm.

It’s been awhile, so let’s review… Please leave your questions for Glenn in the comment section and join us live on Sunday if you can. Should be fun!

The economy is the most important issue in the 2008 presidential campaign, just as it was in Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, when campaign strategist James Carville hung a sign in campaign headquarters with three points:
1. Change vs. more of the same
2. The economy, stupid
3. Don’t forget health care.
That is a strategy for a Democratic victory in 2008, except “end the war” would bump health care to #4.

Continue Reading »

No, I’m not talking about how he called his wife a “cunt”. From Credo:

After the Senate recently failed to get the 60 votes necessary to force an up-or-down vote on the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, Senator John McCain said that widespread gender-based pay inequity isn’t due to discrimination. In his view, women just need more “education and training” to close the wage gap.

We think women need equal rights under the law.

Lilly Ledbetter worked 19 years at Goodyear before she learned the men at her level were earning far more. Eventually she sued, and the case went all the way to the Supreme Court where five male justices ruled her claim invalid because she filed it more than 180 days after the date when the discrimination first started. Now, Senator McCain wants to stop legislation to correct this injustice — and in the process, roll back 50 years of women’s rights.

Lilly Ledbetter and women across the country are not only paid less when they have the same education and same training, but also for doing the exact same job as men. The only difference between men and women in the workplace is women bring home less money to take care of their families.

Senator McCain should know better. Tell him to take back his sexist statement and stop blocking an up or down vote on the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act.

First he didn’t know the difference between Sunni and Shia. This “senior moment mistake” was repeated over and over and over and over again. Now he thinks Putin is the president of Germany. It’s scary to even remotely imagine this man as our next President.

Join Southern Appalachian Mountain Stewards, Sierra Club, Chesapeake Climate Action Network, Appalachian Voices and Southern Environmental Law Center for a Rally for Clean Energy on Thursday, May 8, 2008, 12:30pm. The rally will be held at Kanawha Plaza across from Dominion’s office (Downtown Richmond at Canal and 7th Street) with music by “Trees on Fire” and “Whiskey Rebellion”. The event will also feature display and presentation of the “Mile Long Petition” to Dominion.

If you haven’t signed the “Mile Long” Petition yet, NOW is the time! To sign online and for additional information, go to: virginia.sierraclub.org or wiseenergyva.org. Spread the word!

Dominion’s coal fired plant in Wise County would release 5.3 million tons of carbon dioxide per year increasing global warming pollution and it would expand devastating mountaintop removal coal mining in southwestern Virginia.

There is a better way. We can invest in efficiency and renewables. Help deliver that message to Dominion. Sign the “Mile Long” Petition TODAY and join us Thursday!

For car pooling opportunities, click here.

Hitting all the local Indiana newspapers yesterday was an old memo from Indiana Senator Evan Bayh blasting the Clinton administration’s role in Magnequench, a Indiana company that makes the magnets that helped to guide the precision-guided missiles, the so-called smart bombs. Clinton has been campaigning for two weeks ago on this plant closing, blaming it on Bush. Writes ABC News:

It seems, however, that when it comes to Magnequench there’s quite a bit that Clinton has conveniently forgotten.

….

What Clinton doesn’t tell voters is that Magnequench was originally sold to Chinese interests during her husband’s administration, which okayed the move despite concerns about national security and eventual job loss. Experts say the Chinese acquired the “technical sophistication” that created the magnets long before George W. Bush took office.

Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind,, Clinton’s top surrogate in the state, often joins her on the stump in bashing the president for allowing Magnequench to move abroad. What Bayh doesn’t tell voters these days is that he has blamed the company’s moving on a 1995 decision made by Clinton’s husband’s administration.

Andy Albers, a former vice president of Magnequench, said he received a phone call from Clinton’s campaign to go over key details of Clinton’s Valparaiso event before it happened on April 12.

“I told them all the truth, but it didn’t go anywhere,” Albers told ABC News. “Evan Bayh and Hillary Clinton are living in some false reality here, making all these false accusations.”

“It’s also a security issue,” Clinton said in Pittsburgh. “I’m not comfortable with the fact that we now have to buy magnets for our bombs from China.” Ooops… another lie for Hillary.

“Nothing was done by Magnequench that aided the Chinese military program or hurt the U.S. military program,” says Albers who adds that Clinton’s focus on his former company “concerns me because it doesn’t address the main issue, which is how to make U.S. companies more competitive globally — that’s the question we should be asking, that’s what we should be addressing. We should not be twisting the truth about that this is a national security issue, because it’s not a national security issue, it’s about global competitiveness.”

Albers until recently was a registered Republican, but he intends to vote for Sen. Barack Obama for president in the Indiana primary next week.

First of all, I want to point out that for North Carolina and Indiana, I used the Real Clear Politics averages as results.  Should the results be drastically different on Tuesday, these numbers will obviously change.  On the other states, which have yet to be polled, I judged them by similar states that have already voted, and compared that with current trends.  For example, I considered both West Virginia and Kentucky to be worse than Tennessee for Obama, but better than Arkansas.  I also gave Clinton a large lead in this states based upon Obama’s recent hardships with white, working-class voters.  At the same time, I gave Oregon to Obama based on the results in Northern California and Washington State, but at a victory below 10%.  Hope this helps.

People have been wondering a lot about the Democratic Race, and whether or not Hillary Clinton has a legitimate chance to win the Democratic President Nomination now that Obama seems to have been knocked off his pedestal a bit.  Make no mistake, momentum is on her side.  And Obama has yet to effectively address the Reverend Wright conflict, nor has he been able to regain the inroads with blue-collar voters he had in Iowa.  However, when looking at what races are left, we can expect Hillary Clinton to make gains in the pledged delegate count, but we come to realize that because of preportional allocation of delegates makes it very difficult for her to even get within 100 delegates of Obama.  I’ll explain as we go day by day, state by state.

MAY 6th

North Carolina
Obama 53.5 = 62
Clinton 46.5 = 53

Indiana
Obama 47.5 = 34
Clinton 52.5 = 38

As you can see, there shouldn’t be any significant swing one way or another here.  Obama will pick up about 9 delegates in North Carolina, and Clinton will pick up maybe 4 or 5 in Indiana. This will leave Obama with a gain for the day, but little change in the delegate math.

Delegate Total
Obama = 1838
Clinton = 1697

MAY 13th
West Virginia
Obama 38 = 11
Clinton 62 = 17

Before Pennsylvania I wasn’t positive the damage would be so bad in WV.  Sure, Obama got destroyed in the Ninth District here in Virginia.  But Obama easily owned the Sixth.  I never thought Obama could win in West Virginia, but I thought a 10-point loss was possible.  Now, after Pennsylvania, I’m betting on a stomping here.  Expect a similar beating in Kentucky a week later.  However, because of West Virginia’s small delegate count, Clinton won’t gain much ground here.

Delegate Total
Obama = 1849
Clinton = 1714

MAY 20

Oregon
Obama 54 = 28
Clinton 46 = 24

Kentucky
Obama 39 = 19
Clinton 61 = 32

I had hoped that these two races would cancel each other out; that Obama would lose Kentucky by ten and Hillary would lose Oregon by ten, and the day would be a stalemate.  But once again, Pennsylvania shook things up a bit.  Obama will probably still win Oregon, but not by the numbers he wants.  He’ll pick up maybe 4 delegates on the whole.  Hillary Clinton will give Obama a beating in Kentucky similar to West Virginia, and in this case the delegate count is gonna hurt.  Hillary will pick up somewhere between 12 and 14 delegates in Kentucky, more that in either Pennsylvania or Ohio.  Hillary will continue to gain on Obama, but there won’t be many contests left.  Oregon is where the Clinton team needs to strike gold.  They somehow need to find a way to beat Obama here.  If they can do that, they’re in much better shape.

Obama = 1896
Clinton = 1774

JUNE 1
Puerto Rico
Obama 45 = 25
Clinton 55 = 30

Puerto Rico is the last state with a sizable delegate count, and it’s ripe for Hillary. It’s mostly Hispanic, which should help.  But there is one major problem: Puerto Rico is a caucus state, and Obama has done exceptionally well in Caucus States.  In this race, I use New Mexico as more of a basis of what to expect, however, and I expect a sizeable Clinton victory.  However, there are only 55 delegates in Puerto Rico’s caucus, and while most of them will got to Clinton, I don’t see the 5-7 delegate victory expected to be enough to change people’s minds. 

Obama = 1921
Clinton = 1804 

JUNE 3

Montana
Obama 55 = 9
Clinton 45 = 7

South Dakota
Obama 53 = 8
Clinton 47 = 7 
These are two states that I’m sure Obama is glad he’s ending on.  It’ll leave a more positive taste in Superdelegate mouths than the string of losses he’s sure to expect in many of the upcoming primaries.  These two states have very few delegates, and won’t have much, if any effect, on the count.  If Clinton can beat Obama here, it is a moral victory.  However, Obama has done well out west, and is likely to continue to do well.  He’s got most of the support of elected officials in Montana and South Dakota as well.  Obama will win these races but only by medium-to-small margins, and take home two or three extra delegates total. 

END OF PRIMARY

OBAMA = 1938        
Superdelegates Needed = 87

CLINTON = 1818    
Superdelegates Needed = 207

Superdelegates remaining as of May 4th = 275

Obama would need 32% of remaining superdelegates to win. 

Clinton would need 75% or remaining superdelegates to win.

First, before we analyze, let me say that I suspect both Florida and Michigan will not be included in any way that tips the race one way or the other. The only way these states are included is if they don’t change the outcome. Otherwise, it could start a brawl on the convention floor. Now, the rules committee is told to be pretty split amongst Obama and Clinton supporters, with loyal Deaniacs being the likely people to make the final decision. Dean will NOT want that floor fight, and will likely instruct his people to avoid including these two states in anyway that clouds up the results.

Now here’s where it hurts to be Clinton. Clinton is sure to have a good May, as she had a good March and April. But she simply can’t make-up for Obama’s February. And proportional allocation of delegates is killing her; the fact is that even in the states Obama gets crushed in (West Virginia and Kentucky), he manages to limit her delegate intake. Even if Clinton pulls the popular vote as she hopes to (and REALLY pulls the vote, by which I mean not including Michigan and Florida and by counting caucus states so that there can be no question who won the popular vote), it only leaves the decision up to the superdelegates, where Obama also has an advantage. If you do the math, assuming that no more superdelegates decide before the primaries end (unlikely), Obama will only need just over 30% of the remaining delegates the clinch the nomination. Clinton will need 75%. And if recent superdelegate trends show us anything, it’s that the superdelegates are starting to lean Obama’s way, not Clinton’s.

Is Clinton in better shape than she was a month or two ago? Absolutely. And she will gain over these next few contests. She’s down about 136 delegates right now, and will pick up a total of anywhere between 15-25 new delegates. Hillary Clinton will be in a better position on June 4th than today. However, I’m under the impression that it simply won’t be enough. She’d need much bigger wins in Indiana and Puerto Rico than expected, and would need positively monstrous wins in Kentucky and West Virginia. She has to force Obama’s delegate lead under 100 by the 4th if she wants to win. She will likely not be able to do that.

Hillary Clinton will be able to claim momentum leaving the race, but the number of superdelegates she will have to win just looks too big. Is it possible for her to win? Yes, it is. Is it likely? No, not at all. It is still very unlikely she gets the nomination. Hillary Clinton is going to have a very good May. That doesn’t change the fact that Obama is probably 3-4 times more likely to get the nomination.

John McCain and Hillary Clinton have suggested suspending Federal taxes on all gasoline/diesel sold between Memorial Day (5/26) and Labor Day (9/1) this year. Here’s a Gas Tax Holiday Calculator to figure how much you save. My estimated tax relief is a whopping $13.63. Like so not worth it!

According to this study by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association, this “Gas Tax Holiday” will lower tax revenue for infrastructure by roughly $9 billion and potentially cost 300,000 highway construction jobs. The highway trust fund that the gas tax finances provides money to states and local governments to pay for road and bridge construction, repair and maintenance.

300,000 American jobs lost. $9 Billion in Federal highway funds.

North Carolina: 7,071 jobs and $203,319,748 in Federal highway funds.

Indiana: 6,390 jobs and $183,722,596 in Federal highway funds.

Virginia: 6,539 jobs and $188,006,877 in Federal highway funds.

150 economists sign this letter opposing the gas tax holiday:

An Open Statement Opposing Proposals for a Gas Tax Holiday

In recent weeks, there have been proposals in Congress and by some presidential candidates to suspend the gas tax for the summer. As economists who study issues of energy policy, taxation, public finance, and budgeting, we write to indicate our opposition to this policy. Put simply, suspending the federal tax on gasoline this summer is a bad idea and we oppose it.

There are several reasons for this opposition. First, research shows that waiving the gas tax would generate major profits for oil companies rather than significantly lowering prices for consumers. Second, it would encourage people to keep buying costly imported oil and do nothing to encourage conservation. Third, a tax holiday would provide very little relief to families feeling squeezed. Fourth, the gas tax suspension would threaten to increase the already record deficit in the coming year and reduce the amount of money going into the highway trust fund that maintains our infrastructure.

Signers of this letter are Democrats, Republicans and Independents. This is not a partisan issue. It is a matter of good public policy.

From the makers of Baracky, the Movie.

The video by Democratic candidate Josh Lanier is appropriatly named ‘Boomerang’. Lanier qualified this morning and becomes the 5th Democrat in the race to unseat Bush lapdog Saxby ‘Shameless’ Chambliss. The first time I met Max Cleland was at the Virginia JJ Dinner a few years back. Since then I have had a couple of additional opportunities since I live in GA now.

You can view the video HERE

You didn’t have to live in Georgia in 2002 to get pissed off by the smear Shameless Saxby ran. I’ve had the honor of meeting Sen. Cleland on a few occasions. He is a great guy and has sacrificed much for this country.

Josh recreates the original Chambliss attach in great detail and reverses the target. More than once Chambliss has voted against Webb Amendment to Defense Authorization Act to stablize troop rotations and preserve military readiness.

Some of you may know Josh from his work in the DC area. He was a staffer for Sen. Talmedge in the 70s after coming back from ‘Nam and then spent many years in the Gov’t and business side up there.

Josh is a former Senate staffer and Viet Nam vet who is running, in his words, “The Un-Campaign against politics as usual.” He is a strong supporter of the Fair Elections Now Act and is running his campaign in the spirit of the proposed law. He is not accepting any PAC money or contributions over $100 dollars. This will be a bottom up campaign.

I wish I had caught onto the city mayor and council races in Chesapeake a little earlier. I really only have one basis on which to form an opinion with regards to the city mayor’s race and that is to endorse Dr. Rebecca C.W. Adams. And that basis is my meeting her and listening to her roundtable discussion comments during the Virginia Municipal League “Go Green Government” forum last month.

Not many electeds (she is currently a City Council member) attended the forum whereby local governments learned more about how they could reduce energy usage and promote sustainability. Here’s some of what was learned that day:

1. We learned that for a minimal fee and investment of time that local government can join ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability. Membership comes with access to software that will allow staff to conduct a baseline emissions inventory and to develop an emission reduction target for the forecast year – thus providing a measurable results to show for your actions.
2. From Ken Cronin, Director of General Services for the City of Roanoke, we learned that it starts with the four “R’s”: reforestation, relighting, retrofitting and recycling. With those four “R’s”, cities like Chesapeake could realize some of the same kind of results that Roanoke did:
a. By replacing the lighting fixtures (T12s for T8s) in all city buildings, Roanoke reduced its energy use by 1,696,925 kWh and prevented 1,575 tons of carbon emissions
b. By installing LED traffic lights through the city, their energy use was reduced by 1,447,785 kWh with 1,344 tons of carbon emissions prevented, and
c. By even just installing Energy Star equipment for exit signs and vending machines, they reduced their energy needs by 84,513 kWh with a savings of 78 tons of carbon emissions.

Ms. Adams and I also both participated in a roundtable discussion focusing on land use and its affects on GHG emissions that was conducted by the VML’s Legislative Director Mark Flynn. She and others from her staff asked some great questions.

I sat with the Chesapeake contingency for lunch, and following quick introductions I sarcastically remarked “Don’t worry… I won’t ask you about fly ash.” Even I realize there’s a time and place for every conversation. Ms. Adams was there at this forum because she cares about the air quality of her community. I’m confident she is likewise concerned about water quality and I look forward to having that conversation with her once she is Mayor of Chesapeake.

The Virginian-Pilot today also endorsed Rebecca Adams for Mayor. I’m struck by one quote in there that I quickly found to be true about Ms. Adams with regard to her “grace and reserve”:

“We recommend Adams because of her thoughtfulness, ability to disagree without being disagreeable, and her commitment to quality public services, especially education and public safety. Her grace and reserve make her better suited than Krasnoff to the mayor’s ceremonial and official duties.”

It turns out the average voter is a little smarter than planning officials and local legislators wanted to credit them for. Christopher Newport University conducted a poll measuring voters desires for various transportation projects. Lo and behold widening the HRBT topped the list with 69% of voters rating it #1 on their wish list. Even more amazing was #2 on the wish list. Sixty % of voters support the light rail project and expanding mass transit in Hampton Roads.

So let’s see if the brainiacs over at the HRTA/HRPDC/MPO can actually subtract one from 2 (take the rail tunnel proposal out of the Third Crossing which ranked #3 with 57% vote) and add it to the HRBT expansion project and therefore accomplish two things at one time - improved mass transit and an HRBT expansion! (I know, it’s pretty advanced math but you never know!)

(Voters also weighed in on transportation funding which you can read about here.)

Just as amazing as which projects top the list is which projects fill out the bottom two on the list: the Southeastern Parkway and US 460 expansion. Wow! Those smart voters did that even without seeing HRPDC’s graphs and charts outlining how little traffic congestion those extremely costly roads alleviate. Voters appear to also be pretty keen on sniffing out a bad apple in the barrel. Nothing like the stench of developers’ salivating!

When it comes to yard signs, I’ve long held onto to the mindset that yard signs don’t vote. And especially in Virginia Beach where there seems to be no laws prohibiting them and no one pulling them out as they litter our public right-of-ways, the only effective yard sign, in my mind, is the one in someone’s front yard.

But the cadre of Repug signs at any given busy intersection in Virginia Beach is perhaps kinda cute. They’re colorful, you get to see which candidates have any design sense, you get somewhat of an indication as to which candidate has the big bucks, you get wishful feelings that maybe there will be good voter turnout. In sum, for me they are all friendly reminders of how much I love good ol’ fashioned American politics.

So… good and bad things about yard signs…

But tell me one redeeming thing that comes out of John Moss (candidate for VB Mayor) slapping 2 or 3 bumper stickers on every utility box at every busy intersection in at least the Dam Neck, Princess Anne, Lynnhaven area of Virginia Beach. I mean, why not take spray paint and spray on his message. That method almost has the same long term marring effect on public property. Tisk tisk, John Moss. I hope you get a fine big enough to underwrite the time it takes for some sorry government worker having to go out there and scrape each one off and repaint each utility box.

From Glenn Nye:

I am writing to offer my thoughts and prayers to the families affected by the tornadoes in Suffolk, Colonial Heights and Brunswick County. I also wish to offer my support to the brave men and women in first responder units as they work to rescue those who have been injured and help the families that have had their homes destroyed.

In the coming days and weeks, the full breadth of this disaster will be felt by hundreds of Virginia’s families. I hope you will join with me, if you can, in making a donation to the Red Cross Disaster Relief Fund, so that we may all do our part to help our neighbors that have lost their homes.

Below, please also find the contact information for the Red Cross of Southeastern Virginia and the Red Cross of Suffolk if you should choose to volunteer or donate unused clothing or other items accepted by the Red Cross.

Red Cross of Suffolk
157 North Main Street
Suite C
Suffolk, VA 23434
(757) 539-6645
http://www.suffolkredcross.org/

Red Cross of Southeastern Virginia
(757)-446-7700
http://www.seva-redcross.org/

Office Locations:
Chapter Headquarters, 611 W. Brambleton Ave., Norfolk, VA 23510
Naval Base Office, 7928 14th St. Suite 139, Norfolk, VA 23505
Portsmouth Office, 700 London St., Portsmouth, VA 23704
Virginia Beach Office, 5265 Providence Rd. #400, Virginia Beach, VA 23464

By Bill in Portland Maine
(With humble apologies to Edgar Allan Poe)

Once upon a midnight dreary, while I pondered drunk and weary,
Over how John McCain, the candidate, could be such a frigging bore
While I watched him, taped, on Fox, thinking I’d rather be from a rafter hanging, suddenly there came a banging,
As of some one violently haranguing